رد: نتابع تطور المنخفض هنا بمشيئة الله ..
انا ما بتكلم يكفي ان اجنبي تكلم عن الحالة وهو خبير معروف عالميا اسمه جيم اندرو
شوفوا شو يقول
--South West Asia:
Only a short post here.
It has been unsettled since mid week with rain and thunderstorms over the eastern Khaleej. So big hail, I understand, in NE Emirates and nearby northern Oman.
The next three days look very unsettled for an area spanning Iraq to the Gulf of Oman along with nearby Arabia and Iran. "Unsettled" here means showers and thunderstorms with widely-varied coverage of rain and thunderstorms. Amongst the thunderstorms will be some that will have severe weather--high winds (with "haboob" dust storms), large hail, torrential flooding downpours, even a tornado (or waterspout). I should say, however, that severe weather of this kind normal is only seen over a small fraction of a given area.
Highest rainfall is forecast by the GFS--see wxmaps.org--for the area of the Straits of Hormuz, but also locally north and west to the head of the Gulf (Kuwait, Iraq, Iran).
Unusually strong trough, aloft, is forecast to cut southeast over Iraq to the NW Khaleej as of next Tuesday. Under this trough (Iraq, Kuwait, northern KSA) it will turn unusually cool for 2-3 days. And this trough will drive a cold front southeastward over most of Arabia (it will still later in the week over the southeast). This front, I believe, will be the trigger for much of that excessive flooding rainfall that the GFS numerical forecast model has been showing consistently for the area of UAE, northern Oman and southern Iran.